Following 3 days of strong gains in the broad market indices people are starting to get comfortable with the market rally. Chief among them is the "Mad Money" Cramer. He argues that this Rally is Real. He gives 7 reasons why (a) consumers have risen from dead because of better than expected retail sales in February (2) Bank of American and Citi are making money in 2009 (3) GE rallied on bad news i.e. S&P downgrade (4) M&A activity (Merck buying Schering, Dow reconsidering Rohm & Hass) (5) upside surprise in the tech sector i.e. Taiwan Semi (6) rise in mortgage applications as rates fall and housing appear to be closer to the bottom (7) GM does not need $2 billion assistant from the government.
I am skeptical than Mr. Cramer about the sustainability of the rally for a couple of reasons.
(a) The past 3 days move look like a classic short-covering. Just look at GE, it has gone up more than 50% from it's intra-day low last week. Broadly speaking investors/speculators were shorting the market because all the talking heads were saying S&P500 at 650 or 600 or even with 5-handle.
(b) His 7 points are not fool-proof. They can be argued either way. (1) I have followed retails sales data to know that it's based on survey by Census and it can always be revised down. It is hard to believe in sustainability of retail sales growth when unemployment keeps going up - just yesterday initial claims hit 600k mark. (2) I am not sure what the comments by BofA and C mean - of course they have to make money. The issue with them is not their "operating income" but their toxic assets. (3) GE rallied probably because investors were expecting the worst. I am expecting it to consolidate going forward (4) One or two M&A deals do not not make a trend (5) I think tech was the best positioned sector in this downturn so I don't understand Mr. Cramer's argument (6) mortgage applications are rising because people are finding difficult to get mortgages and thus making multiple applications, duh! (7) the first positive news from GM does not take away the overwhelming problems the company and the industry is facing.
In my view, the market has to consolidate to take stock of the strong rally of the past week. Yes, it has broken above the critical 740 level but a sustained rally is not in offing. Also the market will wait for confirmation of some the positive economic news that Mr. Cramer highlighted. The market generally moves ahead of positive economic data/trend BUT the flip-side is that when the data/trend do not materialize it will come down crashing. I think it is still pre-mature to call for the bottom in the economy - the Wall Street economists have been too bullish in their forecast and I think they still are.
Friday, March 13, 2009
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